The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. ↗
To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. ↗
You can build a statistical model and that's all well and good, but if you're dealing with a new type of financial instrument, for example, or a new type of situation - then the choices you're making are pretty arbitrary in a lot of respects. ↗
There's tons of little tricks that that go into making the perfect shoe, but I think color, comfort is really important and different sizes of heels. ↗
We ask for way too much stuff - way too much stuff. You got a job making $100 a year and bought a house for $3 million. Talking about, 'I don't know what happened with the payment.' ↗