#predictions

If the facts are contrary to any predictions, then the hypothesis is wrong no matter how appealing. ↗

— David Douglass

#appealing #contrary #facts #how #hypothesis

We have seen segments of our Government, in their attitudes and action, adopt tactics unworthy of a democracy, and occasionally reminiscent of totalitarian regimes. We have seen a consistent pattern in which programs initiated with limited goals, such as preventing criminal violence or identifying foreign spies, were expanded to what witnesses characterized as "vacuum cleaners", sweeping in information about lawful activities of American citizens. The tendency of intelligence activities to expand beyond their initial scope is a theme which runs through every aspect of our investigative findings. Intelligence collection programs naturally generate ever-increasing demands for new data. And once intelligence has been collected, there are strong pressures to use it against the target. ↗

— Church Committee

#data #national-security #predictions #prescience #secrecy

Having established that good ideas do indeed come in from the cold, start on the fringes and become mainstream, can we make any predictions about what the next move will be? ↗

— Nigel Farage

#any #become #cold #come #established

We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way. ↗

— Nate Silver

#estimates #get #our #predictions #right

As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. ↗

— H.L. Mencken

#elite #elitism #elitist #meritocracy #politics

The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions. ↗

— Nate Silver

#associate #capital #correlate #expertise #good

To the extent that you can find ways where you're making predictions, there's no substitute for testing yourself on real-world situations that you don't know the answer to in advance. ↗

— Nate Silver

#answer #extent #find #know #making

I am saying that all predictions concerning climate are highly uncertain. ↗

— Freeman Dyson

#climate #concerning #highly #i #i am

Politics is not predictions and politics is not observations. Politics is what we do. Politics is what we do, politics is what we create, by what we work for, by what we hope for and what we dare to imagine. ↗

— Paul Wellstone

#dare #hope #imagine #observations #politics

If you learn one thing from having lived through decades of changing views, it is that all predictions are necessarily false. ↗

— M. H. Abrams

#decades #false #having #learn #lived