#probability

We didn't push the Russians to intervene, but we knowingly increased the probability that they would. ↗

— Zbigniew Brzezinski

#intervene #knowingly #probability #push #russians

If scientific reasoning were limited to the logical processes of arithmetic, we should not get very far in our understanding of the physical world. One might as well attempt to grasp the game of poker entirely by the use of the mathematics of probability. ↗

— Vannevar Bush

#attempt #entirely #far #game #get

Let me state what the official IPCC prediction is: Sea levels could go up as much as three-quarters of a meter in this century, but there is a reasonable probability it could be much higher than that. ↗

— Steven Chu

#could #go #higher #ipcc #levels

It would be so weird if we knew just as much as we needed to know to answer all the questions of the universe. Wouldn't that be freaky? Whereas the probability is high that there is a vast reality that we have no way to perceive, that's actually bearing down on us now and influencing everything. ↗

— George Saunders

#answer #bearing #down #everything #freaky

The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular. ↗

— Edward Gibbon

#general #laws #particular #probability #true

The fact that we don't keep repeating tests in the same arena is not because the probability of the hypothesis showing its falsity in other arenas goes up after it has passed tests in one arena. ↗

— Robert Nozick

#arena #arenas #because #fact #falsity

If nature has taught us anything it is that the impossible is probable ↗

— Ilyas Kassam

#impossibility #impossible #maths #nature #possibility

Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store. ↗

— Leonard Mlodinow

#luck #math #probability #statistics #math

Probability is an inexact science ↗

— Brendan Curry

#knight #probability #unknown #science

Psychology helps to measure the probability that an aim is attainable. ↗

— Edward Thorndike

#attainable #helps #measure #probability #psychology