#probability

Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store. ↗

— Leonard Mlodinow

#luck #math #probability #statistics #math

Probability is an inexact science ↗

— Brendan Curry

#knight #probability #unknown #science

Free yourself from the rigid conduct of tradition and open yourself to the new forms of probability. ↗

— Hans Bender

#forms #free #new #open #probability

Psychology helps to measure the probability that an aim is attainable. ↗

— Edward Thorndike

#attainable #helps #measure #probability #psychology

In trials of fact, by oral testimony, the proper inquiry is not whether is it possible that the testimony may be false, but whether there is sufficient probability that it is true. ↗

— Simon Greenleaf

#false #inquiry #may #oral #possible

In the U.S.A. or Europe there is no realistic way to estimate the type, magnitude, or probability of the risk, nor any way to narrow down the potentially affected regions. ↗

— Jurgen Habermas

#any #down #estimate #europe #magnitude

Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability. ↗

— William Osler

#medicine #probability #science #uncertainty

One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low. ↗

— John Hull

#concerns #earlier #extreme #fat #i

The scientific imagination always restrains itself within the limits of probability. ↗

— Thomas Huxley

#imagination #itself #limits #probability #restrains

Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result -- eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly -- in you. ↗

— Bill Bryson

#life #life