#probability

The more connected that individual is to an issue they care about, the higher probability there is they will stay involved over a longer period of time. ↗

— Chris Hughes

#care #connected #higher #individual #involved

He could not believe that any of them might actually hit somebody. If one did, what a nowhere way to go: killed by accident; slain not as an individual but by sheer statistical probability, by the calculated chance of searching fire, even as he himself might be at any moment. Mathematics! Mathematics! Algebra! Geometry! When 1st and 3d Squads came diving and tumbling back over the tiny crest, Bell was content to throw himself prone, press his cheek to the earth, shut his eyes, and lie there. God, oh, God! Why am I here? Why am I here? After a moment's thought, he decided he better change it to: why are we here. That way, no agency of retribution could exact payment from him for being selfish. ↗

— James Jones

#bell #death #fear #geometry #machine-guns

The laws of probability, so true in general, so fallacious in particular. ↗

— Edward Gibbon

#general #laws #particular #probability #true

The fact that we don't keep repeating tests in the same arena is not because the probability of the hypothesis showing its falsity in other arenas goes up after it has passed tests in one arena. ↗

— Robert Nozick

#arena #arenas #because #fact #falsity

Probability is an inexact science ↗

— Brendan Curry

#knight #probability #unknown #science

Obviously, things can get derailed, particularly if, which looks more and more likely, you get a blow-up between Israel and Iran. I think that's a very real probability now. But barring some real blow-up, the U.S. economy will grow, after a slow first quarter, about 3, 3.5 percent this year, far better than it was in 2011. ↗

— Steve Forbes

#after #barring #better #between #economy

In trials of fact, by oral testimony, the proper inquiry is not whether is it possible that the testimony may be false, but whether there is sufficient probability that it is true. ↗

— Simon Greenleaf

#false #inquiry #may #oral #possible

In the U.S.A. or Europe there is no realistic way to estimate the type, magnitude, or probability of the risk, nor any way to narrow down the potentially affected regions. ↗

— Jurgen Habermas

#any #down #estimate #europe #magnitude

Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability. ↗

— William Osler

#medicine #probability #science #uncertainty

One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low. ↗

— John Hull

#concerns #earlier #extreme #fat #i