#probability

The fact that we don't keep repeating tests in the same arena is not because the probability of the hypothesis showing its falsity in other arenas goes up after it has passed tests in one arena. ↗

— Robert Nozick

#arena #arenas #because #fact #falsity

If nature has taught us anything it is that the impossible is probable ↗

— Ilyas Kassam

#impossibility #impossible #maths #nature #possibility

Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store. ↗

— Leonard Mlodinow

#luck #math #probability #statistics #math

Free yourself from the rigid conduct of tradition and open yourself to the new forms of probability. ↗

— Hans Bender

#forms #free #new #open #probability

One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low. ↗

— John Hull

#concerns #earlier #extreme #fat #i

Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero. ↗

— David R. Ellis

#damn #fourth #law #near #probability

The importance of information is directly proportional to its improbability. ↗

— Jerry Pournelle

#directly proportional #importance #improbability #information #proportional

I don't believe in providence and fate, as a technologist I am used to reckoning with the formulae of probability. ↗

— Max Frisch

#believe #fate #formulae #i #i am

It is almost possible to predict one or two days in advance, within a rather broad range of probability, what the weather is going to be; it is even thought that it will not be impossible to publish daily forecasts, which would be very useful to soci. ↗

— Antoine Lavoisier

#almost #broad #broad range #daily #days

The essence of life is statistical improbability on a colossal scale. ↗

— Richard Dawkins

#essence #improbability #life #scale #statistical