#probability

Medicine is a science of uncertainty and an art of probability. ↗

#medicine #probability #science #uncertainty

One important measurement issue concerns the fat tails problem that I mentioned earlier. VAR is concerned with extreme outcomes. If the tails of the probability distributions we are using are too thin, our VAR measures are likely to be too low. ↗

— John Hull

#concerns #earlier #extreme #fat #i

The scientific imagination always restrains itself within the limits of probability. ↗

— Thomas Huxley

#imagination #itself #limits #probability #restrains

Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result -- eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly -- in you. ↗

— Bill Bryson

#life #life

But to us, probability is the very guide of life. ↗

— Joseph Butler

#life #probability #us #very

Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero. ↗

— David R. Ellis

#damn #fourth #law #near #probability

Maybe we should teach schoolchildren probability theory and investment risk management. ↗

— Andrew Lo

#management #maybe #probability #risk #risk management

Only in Britain could it be thought a defect to be too clever by half. The probability is that too many people are too stupid by three-quarters. ↗