#probability

Another mistaken notion connected with the law of large numbers is the idea that an event is more or less likely to occur because it has or has not happened recently. The idea that the odds of an event with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending on recent occurrences of the event is called the gambler's fallacy. For example, if Kerrich landed, say, 44 heads in the first 100 tosses, the coin would not develop a bias towards the tails in order to catch up! That's what is at the root of such ideas as "her luck has run out" and "He is due." That does not happen. For what it's worth, a good streak doesn't jinx you, and a bad one, unfortunately , does not mean better luck is in store. ↗

— Leonard Mlodinow

#luck #math #probability #statistics #math

Obviously, things can get derailed, particularly if, which looks more and more likely, you get a blow-up between Israel and Iran. I think that's a very real probability now. But barring some real blow-up, the U.S. economy will grow, after a slow first quarter, about 3, 3.5 percent this year, far better than it was in 2011. ↗

— Steve Forbes

#after #barring #better #between #economy

In the U.S.A. or Europe there is no realistic way to estimate the type, magnitude, or probability of the risk, nor any way to narrow down the potentially affected regions. ↗

— Jurgen Habermas

#any #down #estimate #europe #magnitude

Not one of your pertinent ancestors was squashed, devoured, drowned, starved, stranded, stuck fast, untimely wounded, or otherwise deflected from its life's quest of delivering a tiny charge of genetic material to the right partner at the right moment in order to perpetuate the only possible sequence of hereditary combinations that could result -- eventually, astoundingly, and all too briefly -- in you. ↗

— Bill Bryson

#life #life

Fourth Law of Thermodynamics: If the probability of success is not almost one, then it is damn near zero. ↗

— David R. Ellis

#damn #fourth #law #near #probability

The importance of information is directly proportional to its improbability. ↗

— Jerry Pournelle

#directly proportional #importance #improbability #information #proportional

We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty. ↗

— Nate Silver

#comfortable #more #must #probability #uncertainty

If we look at the way the universe behaves, quantum mechanics gives us fundamental, unavoidable indeterminacy, so that alternative histories of the universe can be assigned probability. ↗

— Murray Gell-Mann

#assigned #behaves #fundamental #gives #histories

If you can't argue properly, how can you ever come to a decision when you flip a coin? One side always has some butthead on it, and the reverse bears a lofty representation. Whichever case you make for your side, you can't afford to leave something like that to chance. ↗

— Bauvard

#chance #coin-flipping #funny #humor #probability